Claims, evidence and opinions
If your friend says "This is the best ice cream ever," that's an opinion. If they say "This shop sold 500 cones today, here's the receipt," that's a claim with evidence you can check.
- A claim is a statement someone says is true. Evidence is what supports it. An opinion is a personal view that can't be proven true or false.
- Good questions to ask about any claim:
- Who is saying it, and what do they gain if I believe it?
- What is the evidence? Is it data, a study, a document, or just a story?
- Can I check it somewhere independent?
- What would change my mind?
- One story (an anecdote) is not the same as evidence from many cases.
- Correlation is not causation: two things happening together doesn't prove one caused the other.
- Find three ads or social posts today.
- For each one, write the main claim in one sentence.
- Write the evidence given: data, a study, a document, or just a story? If there is none, write "none".
- Ask: who is saying it, and what do they gain if I believe it?
- Ask: can I check it somewhere independent?
- Write one question you would ask before believing it.
- Check: for each post you can say whether it is a claim, evidence or opinion, and what you would need to see to believe it.
Videos by other creators on YouTube, for reference. They are not made by or affiliated with The Future Market.
Read the video script
[Host] "Every day, someone is trying to convince you of something."
[Text on screen: CLAIM · EVIDENCE · OPINION] "Learn to sort what you hear into three boxes: claim, evidence, opinion."
[Screen: ad saying "Doctors love it!"] "'Doctors love it' is a claim. Which doctors? How many? Where's the proof?"
[Host] "Ask one question every time: how do you know that?"
Find three ads or social posts today. For each, write the main claim, the evidence given (if any), and one question you would ask before believing it.
ClaudeStuck? Copy a ready-made prompt for Claude
Copy this, open Claude, paste it, and Claude will walk you through the lesson step by step.
For a grown-up: Claude is for adults (18+). Copy this, paste it into Claude, and use the answer to explain the lesson to your child.
I'm learning "Critical Thinking & Decision-Making" on The Future Market. Lesson 1: "Claims, evidence and opinions". What the lesson teaches: - A claim is a statement someone says is true. Evidence is what supports it. An opinion is a personal view that can't be proven true or false. - Good questions to ask about any claim: - One story (an anecdote) is not the same as evidence from many cases. - Correlation is not causation: two things happening together doesn't prove one caused the other. The exercise I'm working on: Find three ads or social posts today. For each, write the main claim, the evidence given (if any), and one question you would ask before believing it. --- I'm stuck. Please: 1. Explain the main idea in plain, simple words with one everyday example. 2. Walk me through the exercise one small step at a time. Ask me what I've done so far before giving the next step. 3. Don't just give me the final answer. Help me do it myself, and check my work when I share it.
I'm a parent helping my child (about 8 years old) with a lesson called "Claims, evidence and opinions" from the course "Critical Thinking & Decision-Making". Here's what the lesson says: If your friend says "This is the best ice cream ever," that's an opinion. If they say "This shop sold 500 cones today, here's the receipt," that's a claim with evidence you can check. The activity: Find three ads or social posts today. For each, write the main claim, the evidence given (if any), and one question you would ask before believing it. --- Please explain this so an 8-year-old understands: short sentences, a fun everyday example, and no hard words. Then give me 3 simple questions I can ask my child to check they understood, and a way to do the activity together, one tiny step at a time.
Two ways of thinking: fast and slow
This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.
Confirmation bias and how to beat it
This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.
Checking information online (read laterally)
This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.
Easy-to-undo vs hard-to-undo decisions
This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.
The pre-mortem and a decision checklist
This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.
Final project
This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.
Quiz
What is the difference between a claim and an opinion?
A claim is presented as true and can be checked with evidence; an opinion is a personal view.
What did Kahneman call fast, automatic thinking?
System 1.
In the 1974 wheel-of-fortune experiment, what bias was shown?
Anchoring.
What is confirmation bias?
Favouring information that supports what we already believe.
What is lateral reading?
Leaving a website to check what other sources say about it.
In the Stanford study, which group evaluated websites best?
Professional fact-checkers.
What did Bezos call reversible decisions in his 2015 shareholder letter?
Type 2 decisions, or two-way doors.
What do you imagine in a pre-mortem?
That the plan has already failed, and why.
Final exam
This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.
Certificate
This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.