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School of Life & Soft Skills

Reasoning & Evidence: arguments and bias

Step 6 of 8 in The Commons

Next in your path: 9.7.2 Difficult Conversations: feedback and boundaries

What you'll be able to do
  • Break an argument into premises and a conclusion, and tell "valid" from "sound".
  • Spot common fallacies and know when a look-alike is actually a fair argument.
  • Weigh evidence by study design, and read effect sizes and p-values without being fooled.
  • Know what the research on cognitive biases does and does not show (including the replication problem).
  • Use base rates, absolute risk and Simpson's paradox to read statistics honestly.
  • Handle disputed claims: say what is known, what is contested and how sure you are.
  • Finish with a graded evidence review you can show.
Words in this course 52Open the Vocabulary Hall
01

Anatomy of an argument

In simple words

An argument is like a bridge. The reasons are the posts in the ground and the conclusion is the place the bridge reaches. A good bridge needs strong posts, and the posts must really hold the bridge up.

Before this course: Critical Thinking & Decision-Making (course 9.3). There you learned to separate claims, evidence and opinions, to slow down for big choices, and to read laterally. Now we look inside arguments and test them.

Key facts
  • An argument is a set of statements where some (the premises) are offered as reasons to accept another (the conclusion).
  • Words like "because", "since", "so" and "therefore" often mark the parts. Not every text is an argument: a plain description or a list of facts has no conclusion.
  • Deductive arguments aim to guarantee the conclusion. A deductive argument is valid when it is impossible for the premises to be true and the conclusion false. It is sound when it is valid and all its premises are actually true (Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy).
  • A valid argument can have a false conclusion if a premise is false. "All birds can fly; penguins are birds; so penguins can fly" is valid in form but not sound, because the first premise is false.
  • Inductive arguments aim to make the conclusion likely, not certain (for example, generalising from samples). They are judged as stronger or weaker, not valid or invalid.
  • Hidden (unstated) premises are where many arguments are weakest. "He is rich, so he must be smart" quietly assumes that rich people are smart.
Question to askWhat it checks
What is the conclusion?You know what is being claimed
What are the premises, spoken and unspoken?You see all the support
If the premises were true, would the conclusion follow?Validity or strength
Are the premises actually true?Soundness
Step by step
  1. Pick a short opinion piece, a post or an ad with a clear message (about 5 to 10 sentences).
  2. Underline the conclusion. Ask: "What is this trying to make me believe or do?"
  3. Number each premise, one reason per line, in your own words.
  4. Write any unstated premise that must be true for the conclusion to follow.
  5. Ask: if every premise were true, would the conclusion follow? Mark it "follows" or "gap".
  6. Ask: which premise is the weakest or the least checked? Circle it.
  7. Check: you have one conclusion, a numbered list of premises, at least one unstated premise and one circled weak point.
Watch on YouTube
Critical thinking fundamentals: validityWireless Philosophy · YouTube · youtube.com

Videos by other creators on YouTube, for reference. They are not made by or affiliated with The Future Market.

LESSON 01Anatomy of an argument
LESSON 01 / ANIMATED LESSON / AI VOICE00:00 / 01:00
Read the video script
[Host] "Every argument has two parts: reasons, and what they are supposed to prove."
[Text on screen: PREMISES → CONCLUSION] "The reasons are premises. The point is the conclusion."
[Screen: penguin example] "All birds fly, penguins are birds, so penguins fly. The logic is valid, but a premise is false, so the argument is not sound."
[Host] "Always ask two questions: does it follow, and is it true?"
Try it now

Take one argument from a post, an article or a conversation. Write the conclusion, the premises, one unstated premise and your verdict: valid or weak, and sound or not.

ClaudeStuck? Copy a ready-made prompt for Claude

Copy this, open Claude, paste it, and Claude will walk you through the lesson step by step.

For a grown-up: Claude is for adults (18+). Copy this, paste it into Claude, and use the answer to explain the lesson to your child.

I'm learning "Reasoning & Evidence: arguments and bias" on The Future Market. Lesson 1: "Anatomy of an argument".

What the lesson teaches:
- An argument is a set of statements where some (the premises) are offered as reasons to accept another (the conclusion).
- Words like "because", "since", "so" and "therefore" often mark the parts. Not every text is an argument: a plain description or a list of facts has no conclusion.
- Deductive arguments aim to guarantee the conclusion. A deductive argument is valid when it is impossible for the premises to be true and the conclusion false. It is sound when it is valid and all its premises are actually true (Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy).
- A valid argument can have a false conclusion if a premise is false. "All birds can fly; penguins are birds; so penguins can fly" is valid in form but not sound, because the first premise is false.
- Inductive arguments aim to make the conclusion likely, not certain (for example, generalising from samples). They are judged as stronger or weaker, not valid or invalid.
- Hidden (unstated) premises are where many arguments are weakest. "He is rich, so he must be smart" quietly assumes that rich people are smart.
- Question to ask - What it checks

The exercise I'm working on:
Take one argument from a post, an article or a conversation. Write the conclusion, the premises, one unstated premise and your verdict: valid or weak, and sound or not.

I'm stuck. Please:
1. Explain the main idea in plain, simple words with one everyday example.
2. Walk me through the exercise one small step at a time. Ask me what I've done so far before giving the next step.
3. Don't just give me the final answer. Help me do it myself, and check my work when I share it.
I'm a parent helping my child (about 8 years old) with a lesson called "Anatomy of an argument" from the course "Reasoning & Evidence: arguments and bias".

Here's what the lesson says:
An argument is like a bridge. The reasons are the posts in the ground and the conclusion is the place the bridge reaches. A good bridge needs strong posts, and the posts must really hold the bridge up.

The activity:
Take one argument from a post, an article or a conversation. Write the conclusion, the premises, one unstated premise and your verdict: valid or weak, and sound or not.

Please explain this so an 8-year-old understands: short sentences, a fun everyday example, and no hard words.
Then give me 3 simple questions I can ask my child to check they understood, and a way to do the activity together, one tiny step at a time.
Open Claude
Sources
My notes
02

Fallacies, and when they are not fallacies

This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.

03

Weighing evidence: study design, effect size and p-values

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04

Cognitive biases: what the research really shows

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05

Numbers that fool us: base rates, absolute risk and Simpson's paradox

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06

Disputed claims and honest uncertainty

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07

Putting it together: build and grade an evidence review

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++

Final project

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??

Quiz

  1. What is the difference between a valid and a sound argument?

  2. What is a straw man?

  3. If an argument is bad, is its conclusion false?

  4. Why is a randomised trial usually stronger evidence of cause than an observational study?

  5. What do Cohen's rough conventions say for small, medium and large d?

  6. Does a p-value tell you the probability that a hypothesis is true?

  7. In the 2015 replication project, about what share of replications were significant, versus the originals?

  8. Why can a positive test for a rare condition still often be a false alarm?

  9. What does Simpson's paradox show?

  10. What did the 2008 review of learning styles conclude about matching teaching to style?

  11. How should you describe the Gallup "70% of variance" figure?

  12. What three boxes should a fair summary of a disputed claim have?

EX

Final exam

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CE

Certificate

This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.