Long-Term Life Planning: values and direction

01

Before this course, and why you will change more than you expect

In simple words

When you were five, you thought you would love the same toy forever. You did not. You will keep changing too. So a long plan should be like a compass (a direction), not like a train track (one fixed path).

Before this course: Yearly Growth Plan (course 9.10.2). You already know how to review a year, choose goals that are really yours, plan with the planning fallacy in mind, track progress, and run quarterly reviews with continue, change or drop. Here we zoom out to several years and ask a bigger question: which direction do I want my life to go?

Key facts

The end of history illusion. Quoidbach, Gilbert and Wilson (2013, Science) measured the personalities, values and preferences of more than 19,000 people aged 18 to 68. People of all ages believed they had changed a lot in the past decade but would change relatively little in the next one. This led people to overpay for future chances to enjoy what they like now.
What it means for planning: your values and likes in ten years may be different from today. Plan a direction and keep the details flexible.
Horizons (a planning tip):
3 to 5 years: direction and big themes.
1 year: goals and milestones (course 9.10.2).
Quarter and week: actions and reviews (courses 9.10 and 9.10.2).
Limit: the research measures what people predict and report. It does not tell you how much you personally will change.

Fixed track	Compass
"In 2031 I will be a manager at company X."	"I want work where I lead people and keep learning."
One path, breaks if one step fails	Many paths, can adjust each year

Step by step

Write three ways you have changed in the last ten years (likes, beliefs, skills, friends).
Now write how much you expect to change in the next ten years.
Compare the two lists. If the second is shorter, you may be showing the end of history illusion.
Take one long-term plan you have and rewrite it as a direction ("work where I...") instead of a fixed track.
Write your three horizons on one page: 3 to 5 years, 1 year, this quarter.
Check: your long-term line describes a direction that more than one path could reach.

Watch on YouTube

The psychology of your future self (Dan Gilbert)TED · YouTube · youtube.com

Videos by other creators on YouTube, for reference. They are not made by or affiliated with The Future Market.

LESSON 01Before this course, and why you will change more than you expect

LESSON 01 / ANIMATED LESSON / AI VOICE00:00 / 01:00

Voice

Read the video script

[Host] "How much have you changed in the last ten years? Now, how much will you change in the next ten?"
[Text on screen: 19,000+ people, ages 18 to 68] "In a study of more than 19,000 people, every age group expected to change much less in the future than they had in the past."
[Screen: compass vs train track] "So plan your long-term life like a compass, not a train track."
[Host] "Pick a direction. Keep the details flexible."

Try it now

Write your past-ten-years and next-ten-years change lists, then rewrite one fixed long-term plan as a direction.

ClaudeStuck? Copy a ready-made prompt for Claude

Copy this, open Claude, paste it, and Claude will walk you through the lesson step by step.

For a grown-up: Claude is for adults (18+). Copy this, paste it into Claude, and use the answer to explain the lesson to your child.

I'm learning "Long-Term Life Planning: values and direction" on The Future Market. Lesson 1: "Before this course, and why you will change more than you expect".

What the lesson teaches:
- The end of history illusion. Quoidbach, Gilbert and Wilson (2013, Science) measured the personalities, values and preferences of more than 19,000 people aged 18 to 68. People of all ages believed they had changed a lot in the past decade but would change relatively little in the next one. This led people to overpay for future chances to enjoy what they like now.
- What it means for planning: your values and likes in ten years may be different from today. Plan a direction and keep the details flexible.
- Horizons (a planning tip):
- 3 to 5 years: direction and big themes.
- 1 year: goals and milestones (course 9.10.2).
- Quarter and week: actions and reviews (courses 9.10 and 9.10.2).
- Limit: the research measures what people predict and report. It does not tell you how much you personally will change.

The exercise I'm working on:
Write your past-ten-years and next-ten-years change lists, then rewrite one fixed long-term plan as a direction.

I'm stuck. Please:
1. Explain the main idea in plain, simple words with one everyday example.
2. Walk me through the exercise one small step at a time. Ask me what I've done so far before giving the next step.
3. Don't just give me the final answer. Help me do it myself, and check my work when I share it.

I'm a parent helping my child (about 8 years old) with a lesson called "Before this course, and why you will change more than you expect" from the course "Long-Term Life Planning: values and direction".

Here's what the lesson says:
When you were five, you thought you would love the same toy forever. You did not. You will keep changing too. So a long plan should be like a compass (a direction), not like a train track (one fixed path).

The activity:
Write your past-ten-years and next-ten-years change lists, then rewrite one fixed long-term plan as a direction.

Please explain this so an 8-year-old understands: short sentences, a fun everyday example, and no hard words.
Then give me 3 simple questions I can ask my child to check they understood, and a way to do the activity together, one tiny step at a time.

Open Claude

Sources

Quoidbach, Gilbert & Wilson (2013), "The end of history illusion," Science: doi.org/10.1126/science.1229294

My notes

I learned this

02