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Business Math 2: pricing models, cash flow and simple forecasts

Education only. This course teaches the math. It is not tax, legal, accounting or financial advice, and it does not tell you what to borrow, lease, buy or how to price. The numbers are made up to teach the method. For loan, lease or tax decisions, talk to a licensed accountant or financial professional. All examples use Canadian dollars (CA$) and Philippine pesos (PHP).

What you'll be able to do
  • Work out unit economics: contribution per item, contribution margin %, and what one customer is worth over a few orders.
  • Compare pricing models (cost-plus, value-based, penetration, subscription) with the same numbers.
  • Show how timing (paid late, stock bought early) moves cash from one month to another.
  • Make simple forecasts: a growth rate, a moving average and a seasonality index, in a spreadsheet.
  • Run scenarios (low, expected, high) with one switch cell and a sensitivity test.
  • Compare the total cost of a loan and a lease with the PMT function (education only).
  • Build a 12-month cash-flow forecast.
Words in this course 57Open the Vocabulary Hall
01

Unit economics: what one item and one customer earn

In simple words

Unit economics asks: for one item, or one customer, do I earn more than I spend to get them? If one unit does not make sense, a thousand units will not either.

Before this course: Business Math Basics (course 2.31). You should already know profit, markup vs margin, break-even and simple vs compound interest. We use them here, we do not repeat them. For a full financial plan see course 2.3.2, and for pricing practice see course 2.4.2.

Key facts
  • Contribution per item = price - variable cost per item. (This is the same number you used for break-even in course 2.31.)
  • Contribution margin % = contribution per item / price x 100. It is the share of each sale left to pay fixed costs and then profit.
  • Value of one customer (simple version) = contribution per order x number of orders. Count only orders you can show from real data, not hopes.
  • Acquisition cost = what you spend to win one new customer (ads, free samples, discounts). Divide your marketing spend by the number of new customers it brought.
  • Payback in orders = acquisition cost / contribution per order. Round up to a whole order.
  • These are simplified classroom versions. Real businesses also count fixed costs, refunds and time.
Example (candles, CA$)WorkingResult
Price CA$18, variable cost CA$718 - 7contribution CA$11
Contribution margin %11 / 1861.1%
Customer buys 3 times11 x 3CA$33 contribution
Cost to win the customer CA$2033 - 20CA$13 left after 3 orders
Payback in orders20 / 11 = 1.8, round up2 orders
Step by step
  1. Write the price and the variable cost of one item.
  2. Subtract to get contribution per item. Example: 18 - 7 = CA$11.
  3. Divide by the price for margin %: 11 / 18 = 61.1%.
  4. Write the average number of orders per customer from your records (for example 3).
  5. Multiply: 11 x 3 = CA$33.
  6. Write what it cost to get that customer (for example CA$20) and subtract: CA$13.
  7. Divide the cost by contribution per order and round up for payback: 2 orders.
  8. Check: after the payback number of orders, the customer has paid for their own acquisition cost.
Watch on YouTube
Contribution margin explainedThe Finance Storyteller · YouTube · youtube.com

Videos by other creators on YouTube, for reference. They are not made by or affiliated with The Future Market.

LESSON 01Unit economics: what one item and one customer earn
LESSON 01 / ANIMATED LESSON / AI VOICE00:00 / 01:10
Read the video script
[Host] "Before you grow, check that one sale makes sense."
[Text on screen: Price 18, cost 7, contribution 11] "A candle sells for 18 and costs 7 to make. That leaves 11."
[Text on screen: 11 / 18 = 61%] "Eleven out of eighteen is a contribution margin of 61 percent."
[Text on screen: Win a customer for 20, they buy 3 times = 33] "Win a customer for 20 dollars, and three orders bring back 33."
[Host] "If one unit does not work, more units will not fix it."
Try it now

Use a product or service you could sell. Find the contribution per item, margin %, the value of one customer over three orders and the payback in orders. Write one sentence saying whether the numbers look healthy.

ClaudeStuck? Copy a ready-made prompt for Claude

Copy this, open Claude, paste it, and Claude will walk you through the lesson step by step.

For a grown-up: Claude is for adults (18+). Copy this, paste it into Claude, and use the answer to explain the lesson to your child.

I'm learning "Business Math 2: pricing models, cash flow and simple forecasts" on The Future Market. Lesson 1: "Unit economics: what one item and one customer earn".

What the lesson teaches:
- Contribution per item = price - variable cost per item. (This is the same number you used for break-even in course 2.31.)
- Contribution margin % = contribution per item / price x 100. It is the share of each sale left to pay fixed costs and then profit.
- Value of one customer (simple version) = contribution per order x number of orders. Count only orders you can show from real data, not hopes.
- Acquisition cost = what you spend to win one new customer (ads, free samples, discounts). Divide your marketing spend by the number of new customers it brought.
- Payback in orders = acquisition cost / contribution per order. Round up to a whole order.
- These are simplified classroom versions. Real businesses also count fixed costs, refunds and time.
- Example (candles, CA$) - Working - Result

The exercise I'm working on:
Use a product or service you could sell. Find the contribution per item, margin %, the value of one customer over three orders and the payback in orders. Write one sentence saying whether the numbers look healthy.

I'm stuck. Please:
1. Explain the main idea in plain, simple words with one everyday example.
2. Walk me through the exercise one small step at a time. Ask me what I've done so far before giving the next step.
3. Don't just give me the final answer. Help me do it myself, and check my work when I share it.
I'm a parent helping my child (about 8 years old) with a lesson called "Unit economics: what one item and one customer earn" from the course "Business Math 2: pricing models, cash flow and simple forecasts".

Here's what the lesson says:
Unit economics asks: for one item, or one customer, do I earn more than I spend to get them? If one unit does not make sense, a thousand units will not either.

The activity:
Use a product or service you could sell. Find the contribution per item, margin %, the value of one customer over three orders and the payback in orders. Write one sentence saying whether the numbers look healthy.

Please explain this so an 8-year-old understands: short sentences, a fun everyday example, and no hard words.
Then give me 3 simple questions I can ask my child to check they understood, and a way to do the activity together, one tiny step at a time.
Open Claude
Sources
  • Well-known textbook definitions of contribution margin and unit economics. These are teaching versions of the formulas; no statistics are used in this lesson.
My notes
02

Pricing models and the math behind each

This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.

03

Cash-flow timing: when money really moves

This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.

04

Simple forecasts in a spreadsheet

This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.

05

Scenarios and sensitivity in a spreadsheet

This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.

06

Loan vs lease: comparing total cost (education only)

This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.

07

Build a 12-month cash-flow forecast

This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.

++

Final project

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??

Quiz

  1. What is contribution per item?

  2. Price CA$18, variable cost CA$7. What is the contribution margin %?

  3. A customer costs CA$20 to win and each order gives CA$11 contribution. What is the payback in orders?

  4. How does BDC describe cost-plus pricing?

  5. What do BDC call the price floor and the price ceiling?

  6. Fixed costs CA$300, contribution CA$5. What is break-even in units?

  7. A CA$2,000 invoice is paid 30 days after a March sale. Which month does the cash arrive?

  8. How do you find the cash gap in days (classroom rule)?

  9. What is a seasonality index?

  10. What does the CHOOSE function do?

  11. In PMT, what do rate and nper mean for a monthly loan with a yearly rate?

  12. Why compare total cost, not only the monthly payment, for a loan and a lease?

EX

Final exam

This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.

CE

Certificate

This lesson is part of full access: every course and every level for one payment.