Your performance model: from numbers to targets
A pilot does not guess how much fuel is left: they read the dials. In this course your match numbers are your dials. You will pick the few dials that matter most, set a target for each, and check them again and again.
Before this course: Tennis Performance: tactics, match analysis and tournaments (course 10.1.3), which builds on Tennis 2 (course 10.1.2) and Tennis Fundamentals (course 10.1). This course assumes you can chart a match and calculate first-serve percentage, points won on first and second serve, winners, unforced errors and return points won, that you have a written baseline, and that you know the match-day time limits and a four-step between-points routine. If any of that feels shaky, go back to course 10.1.3 first.
- A performance model is a short list of numbers (coaching term) that describe how you win and lose points. Three to six numbers is enough. More numbers hide the message.
- In tennis scoring, you can win more games than your opponent in a set and still lose more total points, and the other way around. Count both points won and games won when you review a match (the ITF Rules of Tennis define the scoring).
- Useful numbers beyond course 10.1.3 (all are coaching ideas, you calculate them yourself):
| Number | How to count it | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Total points won % | Points you won / all points played x 100 | Whether you really out-played the opponent |
| Serve + 1 win % | Points won when the point lasted 1 to 3 shots after your first serve in / those points | How well your serve sets up your next ball |
| Return + 1 win % | Points won when you returned and the point lasted 1 to 3 more shots | How well your return gets you into the point |
| Pressure points won | Points won at 30-all, deuce, break points, and in tiebreaks / pressure points played | How you play when it matters |
| Unforced errors by shot | Count per shot type (forehand, backhand, serve return, volley) | Which shot leaks most |
- Targets are your own, small and measurable, and based on your baseline. A common idea: improve one number by a small step over about 4 weeks, for example first-serve percentage from 58 to 62.
- Leading and lagging numbers. A lagging number is a result (match won or lost, rating). A leading number is something you control in practice (first serves in during practice, depth of returns). Train the leading numbers, check the lagging ones.
- Ratings stay a guide. A World Tennis Number (WTN) is calculated from your recorded match results and updates weekly in Canada (Tennis Canada); it is not a measure of your worth.
- Open your notes from course 10.1.3: your baseline table and your last charted match.
- Add the new numbers from the table above: total points won %, serve + 1, return + 1 and pressure points.
- Pick the three numbers that tell your story best (for example: first-serve %, return + 1 win %, pressure points won).
- Write a target for each, small enough to reach in 4 weeks.
- For each target write one leading number you can train in practice (for example: "7 of 10 returns past the service line").
- Put all of this on one page called "My performance model".
- Check: your page shows three numbers, three targets and three practice numbers, and you can explain each in one sentence.
Read the video script
[Host] "Mastery starts with a small set of numbers, not a huge spreadsheet."
[Text on screen: Points won, not just games] "Count total points won. It shows who really played better."
[Screen: table with serve plus one and return plus one] "Add serve plus one, return plus one and pressure points."
[Text on screen: Lead and lag] "Results are lagging numbers. Practice numbers are leading numbers."
[Host] "Pick three numbers. Set three small targets. Check them every month."
Write your one-page performance model with three numbers, three 4-week targets and three practice numbers. Pin it where you keep your racquet bag.
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I'm learning "Tennis Mastery: high-performance tactics, match strategy and self-coaching" on The Future Market. Lesson 1: "Your performance model: from numbers to targets". What the lesson teaches: - A performance model is a short list of numbers (coaching term) that describe how you win and lose points. Three to six numbers is enough. More numbers hide the message. - In tennis scoring, you can win more games than your opponent in a set and still lose more total points, and the other way around. Count both points won and games won when you review a match (the ITF Rules of Tennis define the scoring). - Useful numbers beyond course 10.1.3 (all are coaching ideas, you calculate them yourself): - Number - How to count it - What it tells you - Total points won % - Points you won / all points played x 100 - Whether you really out-played the opponent - Serve + 1 win % - Points won when the point lasted 1 to 3 shots after your first serve in / those points - How well your serve sets up your next ball - Return + 1 win % - Points won when you returned and the point lasted 1 to 3 more shots - How well your return gets you into the point The exercise I'm working on: Write your one-page performance model with three numbers, three 4-week targets and three practice numbers. Pin it where you keep your racquet bag. I'm stuck. Please: 1. Explain the main idea in plain, simple words with one everyday example. 2. Walk me through the exercise one small step at a time. Ask me what I've done so far before giving the next step. 3. Don't just give me the final answer. Help me do it myself, and check my work when I share it. 4. This is for learning only. Remind me to check with a licensed professional before I make a real decision about my own money, health or legal situation.
I'm a parent helping my child (about 8 years old) with a lesson called "Your performance model: from numbers to targets" from the course "Tennis Mastery: high-performance tactics, match strategy and self-coaching". Here's what the lesson says: A pilot does not guess how much fuel is left: they read the dials. In this course your match numbers are your dials. You will pick the few dials that matter most, set a target for each, and check them again and again. Before this course: Tennis Performance: tactics, match analysis and tournaments (course 10.1.3), which builds on Tennis 2 (course 10.1.2) and Tennis Fundamentals (course 10.1). This course assumes you can chart a match and calculate first-serve percentage, points won on first and second serve, winners, unforced errors and return points won, that you have a written baseline, and that you know the match-day time limits and a four-step between-points routine. If any of that feels shaky, go back to course 10.1.3 first. The activity: Write your one-page performance model with three numbers, three 4-week targets and three practice numbers. Pin it where you keep your racquet bag. Please explain this so an 8-year-old understands: short sentences, a fun everyday example, and no hard words. Then give me 3 simple questions I can ask my child to check they understood, and a way to do the activity together, one tiny step at a time. Keep it general and educational. This is not advice for a real situation.
Sources
- Tennis Canada, Rules of the Court 2026 (Rules of Tennis: scoring, tiebreak): assets.tenniscanada.com/production/Rules-of-the-Court-2026.pdf
- Tennis Canada, Get your World Tennis Number: www.tenniscanada.com/compete-perform/rating-ranking-systems/get-your-w
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Game plans: A plan, B plan and in-match adjustments
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Point construction: phases, margins and decisions
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Mental routines under pressure
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Periodised practice and recovery
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Self-coaching with video and data, and your 12-week plan
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Final project
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Quiz
Why count total points won and not only games won?
You can win more points and still lose games, so points show who really played better.
What is a leading number?
Something you control in practice, such as returns past the service line.
How many Court Pace Rating categories does the ITF use, and what are the ends?
Five, from Category 1 slow (29 or less) to Category 5 fast (45 and above).
On a slower court, what is a sensible change in plan?
Be more patient and use height and spin.
What are the three parts of a game plan?
An A plan, a B plan and a trigger for switching.
When is coaching during the match allowed?
Not in most competitions, so check the event notice (Rule 30).
Name the three phases of a point.
Start, build and finish.
How many seconds are allowed between points, when changing ends and at a set break?
25, 90 and 120 seconds.
What is an if-then plan?
A decision made in advance, such as "if I double fault, then I take a breath and use a bigger target".
How much sleep do health guidelines usually recommend for adults 18 to 64?
7 to 9 hours.
Who should medically clear a return to sport after a concussion?
A doctor or another qualified health professional.
Why do you film only with permission?
Players, and parents of minors, must agree, and video stays private.
Final exam
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Certificate
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