Why fear makes money decisions worse
When a big dog barks, you want to run, even if the dog is behind a fence. Scary money news is like that bark: it makes us want to do something fast. Fast and scared is usually not the best way to decide.
- Loss aversion. The Ontario Securities Commission's investor education site (GetSmarterAboutMoney) describes loss aversion as a common bias in which the pain of losing is about twice as strong as the pleasure of gaining the same amount. Losing $10 feels about twice as bad as gaining $10 feels good.
- Herd behaviour. The same site describes herding (following the crowd) and says it can push people to buy or sell investments out of panic, especially in uncertain times. Its examples include people stockpiling toilet paper and flour in early 2020 because others were, and "meme stock" trading in early 2021 fuelled by social media hype. It says following the herd can lower your returns in the long run.
- Acting a lot is not the same as acting well. A peer-reviewed study (Barber and Odean, The Journal of Finance, 2000) looked at 66,465 households at a large discount broker from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded the most earned 11.4% a year, while the market returned 17.9%: a gap of 6.5 percentage points a year. The authors say overconfidence can explain the high trading and the poor results.
- Impulse in a falling market. FINRA (the US self-regulatory body for brokers) notes that when markets drop sharply, it is easy to react on impulse and sell investments. The Ontario Securities Commission's site says to try to avoid impulse decisions you may regret later.
| Feeling | What it can push you to do | A calmer question to ask |
|---|---|---|
| Fear of losing | Sell in a panic, or freeze and do nothing at all | "Has my goal or my timeline actually changed?" |
| Fear of missing out | Copy the crowd into something you do not understand | "Would I choose this if nobody else was talking about it?" |
| Overconfidence | Make many quick moves | "What is my evidence, and what would prove me wrong?" |
- Think of one money decision you made quickly because you felt worried or excited (it can be small, like a sale or a purchase).
- Write it as one line: what happened, what you felt, what you did.
- Name the feeling using the table: fear of losing, fear of missing out, or overconfidence.
- Write the calmer question from the table next to it.
- Write what you might have done differently if you had waited 24 hours.
- Check: you have one real example, one named feeling and one calmer question.
Videos by other creators on YouTube, for reference. They are not made by or affiliated with The Future Market.
Read the video script
[Host] "When money news gets scary, your brain wants to act fast. That is normal, and it is also where mistakes start."
[Text on screen: losing feels about 2x as bad as winning feels good] "Researchers call it loss aversion: a loss feels about twice as strong as a gain of the same size."
[Screen: a crowd of shopping carts piled with toilet paper] "Then there is the herd. When everyone runs, we run too, even when we do not know why."
[Text on screen: most active traders 11.4% a year vs market 17.9%] "One study of over sixty-six thousand households found the people who traded the most did worst."
[Host] "So the first skill is not a clever move. It is a pause. Name the feeling, then ask a calmer question."
For the next 7 days, every time a money headline makes you feel worried or excited, write down the headline, the feeling (fear of losing, fear of missing out or overconfidence) and whether it changes anything about your own goals. At the end of the week, count how many actually did.
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I'm learning "Calm in Uncertain Markets: prepare, protect and plan (education only)" on The Future Market. Lesson 1: "Why fear makes money decisions worse". What the lesson teaches: - Loss aversion. The Ontario Securities Commission's investor education site (GetSmarterAboutMoney) describes loss aversion as a common bias in which the pain of losing is about twice as strong as the pleasure of gaining the same amount. Losing $10 feels about twice as bad as gaining $10 feels good. - Herd behaviour. The same site describes herding (following the crowd) and says it can push people to buy or sell investments out of panic, especially in uncertain times. Its examples include people stockpiling toilet paper and flour in early 2020 because others were, and "meme stock" trading in early 2021 fuelled by social media hype. It says following the herd can lower your returns in the long run. - Acting a lot is not the same as acting well. A peer-reviewed study (Barber and Odean, The Journal of Finance, 2000) looked at 66,465 households at a large discount broker from 1991 to 1996. The households that traded the most earned 11.4% a year, while the market returned 17.9%: a gap of 6.5 percentage points a year. The authors say overconfidence can explain the high trading and the poor results. - Impulse in a falling market. FINRA (the US self-regulatory body for brokers) notes that when markets drop sharply, it is easy to react on impulse and sell investments. The Ontario Securities Commission's site says to try to avoid impulse decisions you may regret later. - Feeling - What it can push you to do - A calmer question to ask - Fear of losing - Sell in a panic, or freeze and do nothing at all - "Has my goal or my timeline actually changed?" - Fear of missing out - Copy the crowd into something you do not understand - "Would I choose this if nobody else was talking about it?" The exercise I'm working on: For the next 7 days, every time a money headline makes you feel worried or excited, write down the headline, the feeling (fear of losing, fear of missing out or overconfidence) and whether it changes anything about your own goals. At the end of the week, count how many actually did. I'm stuck. Please: 1. Explain the main idea in plain, simple words with one everyday example. 2. Walk me through the exercise one small step at a time. Ask me what I've done so far before giving the next step. 3. Don't just give me the final answer. Help me do it myself, and check my work when I share it. 4. This is for learning only. Remind me to check with a licensed professional before I make a real decision about my own money, health or legal situation.
I'm a parent helping my child (about 8 years old) with a lesson called "Why fear makes money decisions worse" from the course "Calm in Uncertain Markets: prepare, protect and plan (education only)". Here's what the lesson says: When a big dog barks, you want to run, even if the dog is behind a fence. Scary money news is like that bark: it makes us want to do something fast. Fast and scared is usually not the best way to decide. The activity: For the next 7 days, every time a money headline makes you feel worried or excited, write down the headline, the feeling (fear of losing, fear of missing out or overconfidence) and whether it changes anything about your own goals. At the end of the week, count how many actually did. Please explain this so an 8-year-old understands: short sentences, a fun everyday example, and no hard words. Then give me 3 simple questions I can ask my child to check they understood, and a way to do the activity together, one tiny step at a time. Keep it general and educational. This is not advice for a real situation.
Sources
- Ontario Securities Commission (GetSmarterAboutMoney), Loss aversion: www.getsmarteraboutmoney.ca/learning-path/psychology-of-investing/how-
- Ontario Securities Commission (GetSmarterAboutMoney), Herd behaviour: www.getsmarteraboutmoney.ca/learning-path/psychology-of-investing/herd
- Barber, B. M. and Odean, T. (2000), Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth, The Journal of Finance 55(2): faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers%20current%20versions/individual
- FINRA, Volatility: www.finra.org/investors/investing/investing-basics/volatility
- Ontario Securities Commission (GetSmarterAboutMoney), How does market volatility affect your investments?: www.getsmarteraboutmoney.ca/learning-path/understanding-risk/how-volat
Your safety net first: an emergency fund and a personal plan
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Diversification and time horizon (ideas only)
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News or noise? Filtering what you hear
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Write your rules before the storm
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Scams that use scary news
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Your best opportunity: skills, careers and licensed help
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Final project
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Quiz
What does loss aversion mean?
A loss feels about twice as strong as a gain of the same size.
What can herd behaviour push people to do in uncertain times?
Buy or sell out of panic, copying the crowd.
In the Barber and Odean study, how did the households that traded the most do compared with the market?
Worse: 11.4% a year versus 17.9% for the market.
What is an emergency fund?
Cash set aside for unplanned expenses or financial emergencies.
Name one way to make saving easier.
Set up automatic transfers (or put windfalls like a tax refund toward it).
What is a time horizon?
When you will need the money.
Does diversification remove all risk?
No. It spreads risk, but all investments go up and down in price.
After a 50% fall, what gain is needed to get back to the start?
100%.
Why are stocks in the news not automatically a good choice?
Being in the news only means they grabbed attention, not that they fit your goals.
What is an "if-then" plan?
A rule written in advance that says what you will do when something happens.
Which payment methods do only scammers insist on?
Wire transfer, gift card, payment app, cryptocurrency or cash.
Before trusting a money adviser, what should you do?
Check that they are registered or licensed with your country's regulator.
Final exam
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